تحلیل تقاضای عسل وارداتی در عربستان سعودی توسط سیستم تقاضای تقریبا ایده‌آل ΑIDS

ABSTRACT Analysis of Saudi demand for imported honey using an Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS)

In Saudi Arabia, the demand for imported natural honey has increased as result of many factors such as the increase in population and income. We can observe that imports of natural honey increased from around 2.2 thousand tons in 1991 to 6.4 thousand tons in 2000, which means the imports of this product increase of 4.2 thousand tons over 10 years (General Authority for Statistics, 1991–2017). Imports reached more than 21.3 thousand tons in 2014, which clearly reflects the increase in demand from Saudi consumers. The other reason for the increase in imports is the fact that production by local honey projects in Saudi Arabia could not match the increase in domestic consumption during the study period (1991–2017). According to data from the Ministry of Environment, Water, and Agriculture (2018), total domestic production in 2017 amounted to 2.5 thousand tons, while total imports reached about 16.5 thousand tons in the same year, which represents only about 15 percent of the supply volume in the Saudi market. The importance of imports to meet the domestic demand for natural honey is, therefore, clear.

Saudi Arabia is dependent on several countries for imports of natural honey. The most prominent countries during the study period were Yemen, Pakistan, India, Australia, United States, Argentina, Mexico, Germany, Turkey, and Spain. The relative importance of imports from these countries changed depending on production conditions and other factors affecting foreign trade. Between 1992 and 1994, imports from Turkey accounted for between 35 and 50 percent of total imports of natural honey. Recently, imports from a few countries such as Pakistan and Mexico have accounted for around 25 percent of the total imports (The General Authority for Statistics, 1991-2017).

Most research on honey focuses on the contribution of honey to nutrition and human health. Some research has focused on the economic aspects of honey such as consumer behavior regarding demand, prices, and competition. Economic research on honey focuses on the effects of several factors on demand and consumer preferences such as importance of the source of honey, wax content, proportion of sugar, packaging, color, taste, aroma, brand name, and certification and their impact on willingness to pay (Ghorbani and Khajeh Roshanaee, 2009, Cosmina et al., 2016, Ismaiel et al., 2014, Zulail et al., 2014, Wu et al., 2015, Brščić et al., 2017, Ribeiro et al., 2018).

In addition, honey suppliers’ competition behavior provides an interesting area of study to understand economic behavior related to honey. Wang and Wang (2006) studied Chinese exports of honey to Japan. They used linear approximate almost ideal demand system models (LA-AIDS) to estimate the income and price elasticities observed in competition between Argentinian and Chinese honey imports. The demand system model is commonly used to describe an economic phenomenon regarding agricultural and food products; its results illustrate price and income elasticities and compare different alternatives. Such a model is used to examine demand for fruit juice imports in the United States (He and Huo, 2011), and the relationship between citrus products, which include oranges, tangerines, and lemons (Alzoom, 2000), and the competitive relationships between sources of orange imports (Alzoom, 2000). It is also used to examine demand for rice (Ruwis, 2004) and sheep meat for Saudi Arabia (Ruwais and Alderiny, 2008, Ruwis et al., 2007). Even though, there is a lack of econometric studies that focus on the optimal demand of Saudi consumers regarding imported natural honey. There is a need to study and analyze the demand structure for imported natural honey, which may contribute to the adoption of appropriate economic decisions in the field of improvement and expansion of domestic production and are also applicable in the field of trade exchange.

The main objective of this research is to analyze Saudi demand for natural honey imported from Yemen, Pakistan, Australia, Argentina, Mexico, and Germany. The study seeks to achieve a number of other objectives that include computing own-price, cross-price, and expenditure or income elasticities to show the effect of the relative changes in prices and total expenditure on the relative changes in the quantities demanded, and using elasticities for prediction of the quantities demanded. The results of this study expected to show the competitive situation among origin countries and examine whether these countries represent acceptable alternatives for Saudi consumers.