بکارگیری و کاربرد شیوه محاسبه احتمالات بهینه شده مستقیم

ABSTRACT Application of the Direct Optimised Probabilistic Calculation Method

At present a line of computing procedures are used for evaluation of bearing structures reliability which come out of the probability theory and mathematical statistics the development of which has been passing through significant growth lately. These computing procedures contribute to qualitatively higher level of the reliability evaluation and also to security provision of users of the designed object[1, 8, 23, 24, 26]. They are suitable for design of bearing structure elements with set reliability level when at least some of the design variables have random character. At defining the input random variables they are frequently based on values coming from measurements performed with real objects even the long-term ones [2, 25].

The probabilistic evaluation process and structure design have just entered in the common design practice [29]. The stated computing procedures are used namely at designs of structural [9] or underground bearing systems [28] when also the service life of the construction can be estimated in addition to its reliability, or to analyse its resistance to degradation effects [27] and corrosion respectively [22, 30].

The article is focussed on the utilisation of original and newly developed probabilistic method Direct Optimised Probabilistic Calculation (hereinafter DOProC), which functions purely numerically without application of any of the simulation techniques which results in a more precise solution of probabilistic tasks and in certain situations also to a far more quicker calculation[5, 11].

The calculation methodology using the DOProC method was already theoretically processed in several publications [3, 4]. At present a line of probabilistic tasks can be solved using the DOProC method. For these purposes several software means applying the DOProC method were developed.