Outline

  • Abstract
  • Keywords
  • 1. Introduction
  • 2. Description of Petzone Feed and Product Pipelines
  • 3. Comprehensive Risk Analysis of Pipelines
  • 3.1. Relative Ranking of Pipelines
  • 3.2. Adjusting Factor
  • 3.2.1. Third-Party Damage Index
  • 3.2.2. Corrosion Index
  • 3.2.3. Incorrect Operation Index
  • 3.2.4. Design Index
  • 3.3. Failure Frequency
  • 3.4. Lethal Concentration
  • 3.5. Modeling of Toxic Cloud Dispersion
  • 4. Pipeline Comprehensive Risk Analysis (pcra) Algorithm
  • 5. Results of Comprehensive Risk Analysis for the Chlorine Pipeline
  • 6. Sensitivity Analysis
  • 7. Conclusions
  • Acknowledgments
  • References

رئوس مطالب

  • چکیده
  • کلید واژه ها
  • 1. مقدمه
  • 2. شرح خطوط لوله خوراک و محصولات PETZONE
  • 3. آنالیز جامع مخاطرات خطوط لوله
  • 3.1 رتبه بندی نسبی خطوط لوله
  • 3.2 فاکتور تنظیم کننده
  • 3.2.1 اندیس خرابی شخص ثالث
  • 3.2.2 اندیس خوردگی
  • 3.2.3 اندیس عملیات ناصحیح
  • 3.2.4 اندیس طراحی
  • 3.3 فرکانس خرابی
  • 3.4. غلظت مرگبار
  • 3.5. مدلسازی توزیع ابری سمی
  • 4. الگوریتم آنالیز جامع خطر خط لوله (PCRA)
  • 5. نتایج آنالیز ریسک جامع برای خط لوله کلر
  • 6. آنالیز حساسیت
  • 7. نتیجه گیری

Abstract

Complete information is needed for comprehensive risk assessment and management of pipelines. However, obtaining information using quantitative risk assessment (QRA) (probabilistic model) is not readily possible. Thus, in this research, using probabilistic and indexing models, an algorithm is developed, which overcomes most of the limitations of the models, and is an appropriate technique for the comprehensive risk assessment and management of pipelines. For this reason, 60 feed and product pipelines of the Mahshahr Petrochemical complexes were evaluated and chlorine pipeline was selected based on high-hazard distances for risk analysis. Furthermore, the relative risk indices were also determined in all parts of the pipeline. The failure rate of the pipeline was assessed on the basis of different failure causes. Heavy Gas Dispersion Model developed by ALOHA software was used for the consequence analysis of chlorine gas in different concentrations. Subsequently, the results of the relative risk assessment indices were used as an adjusting factor to correct the pipeline failure rate and to develop an algorithm for the comprehensive risk assessment technique. Finally, sensitivity analysis of the algorithm was carried out. The present algorithm enables the identification of most of the pipeline failure causes. Application of historical incident data is not only important in risk management and emergency response plans, but is also helpful in evaluating the risk by using acceptable risk criterion, such as “as low as reasonably practicable” (ALARP).

Keywords: - - - -

Conclusions

The 60 feed and product pipelines in the PETZONE represent non-typical sources of major accident risks. Therefore, we developed a PCRA technique using the relative risk model (index model) and absolute risk model (probabilistic model). The algorithm developed for the identification of the most frequent failure causes of the pipelines and application of historical incident data not only significantly influences the risk management and ERP, but also allows evaluation of the obtained risk using acceptable risk criteria, such as ALARP. Furthermore, the prepared flowchart for the comprehensive risk analysis of feed and product pipelines network mitigates the risk to acceptable degrees throughout the pipeline network.

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