From the “forgotten region” to the “great game” region: On the development of geopolitics in Central Asia

Outline

• Abstract
• Keywords
• 1. Introduction
• 2. Central Asian Developments and the Revival of Geopolitical Studies
• 3. Kazakhstan's ‘multipolarity’, Oil Politics, and Security Policy
• 4. Kyrgyzstan's Uprisings and “geo-Military” Auctions
• 5. Regionalism and International Cooperation
• 6. Conclusion
• Acknowledgments
• References

Conclusions

The collapse of the Soviet Union inevitably led to a new era of international relations. However, 20 years later reaching a consensus on the nature of the world we live in seems to be far from achievable. Moreover, new conflicts and controversies that have emerged in Central Asia and in the entire post-Soviet world require new conceptual and practical approaches for their effective resolution.19

In fact, although not only widely discussed in literature, the former Yugoslavia and the Caucasus have appeared to be the most unstable regions in post-Communist Eurasia. Central Asia’s advantageous geopolitical position, along with the geo-economic benefits from oil resources, have altered existing debates in the field of International Relations due to the myriad of developments related to these new realities. This is particularly noticeable in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, among other countries in this region. In particular, Kazakhstan’s investment policy on oil reserves is no longer considered predictable due to the geopolitics of East and West, as well as the tensions between political and business interests, making “the energy game as high as ever”20. Foreign investment policy is under alteration in the state, once referred to by Brzezinski as to as a “black hole” on the “global geopolitical map”, which might lead to the new wave of international confrontations related to the enormous foreign capital vested there.

Kyrgyzstan’s “auctions” relating to its military base Manes for the military operations in Afghanistan is sadly infamous. In addition, there is a threat that periodic uprisings in this state could reverberate across Central Asia, and many are concerned that “it will have a domino effect in the long term” (Lee, 2010). In the short term, the Central Asian leaders will tighten the screws, which will lead to more control and more authoritarianism. Moreover, due to the high poverty in Kyrgyzstan and some other Central Asian states, they are exposed to the threat of spreading terrorism and drug-trafficking from Afghanistan to the other CIS countries and the world. There is an obvious need for a strong Central Asian security system, which is impossible to maintain without international involvement and cooperation among the leading powers. Meanwhile, the progress on maintaining institutional cooperation between CSTO and the NATO in the region has not yet been reached, which intensifies tensions between the countries of the region, and between the global powers involved.

Problems that are encountered in the Central Asian region require urgent attention by the regional and international organizations and the countries involved; however, reaching an international consensus is even more complex due to the range of interests and capitals vested there (Chufrin, 2010). Despite the importance of the region, international engagement also lacks consistency amongst governments and business structures of different countries, NGOs, and international organizations. It should be emphasized that institutional cooperation is desirable not only in the security areas, but also in the area of economic cooperation. In the area of the energy supplies, EBRD stressed that further support of the energy pipeline developments and infrastructure requires an improved investment climate and transparent international legal framework.21 Meanwhile “instead of a shared vision of cooperative security, there is a talk of a new Great Game”, which puts at stake successful economic cooperation (Lo, 2008, p. 97). Contradictions exist also on the institutional level in the trade area-between the EurAsEC/Custom’s Union and the WTO, which complicates foreign relations in the region.

It is considered misleading, then, to refer to one approach in examining the new web of international relations in the region as this will not allow the nation-states to put aside some strategic priorities and to consider others. Central Asian developments are not limited to the geopolitical aspects; currently the countries are encountering a huge spectrum of socio-political and economic transformations. Consideration of these developments through purely geopolitical licenses could rather increase confrontation instead of offering peaceful constructive solutions for the national and international actors involved. What should be prioritized hence is the mutual interest to see the “defunct communist world region” being more integrated into the world economy, and world politics as democratically and economically developed actors contributing to the mutual benefits of the parties involved.